Whoa! The NFL changed the extra point kick distance to 33 yards and now teams have a tough decision to make, go for one or two points? The one point extra point is no longer a given with a success rate of about 94%. Teams can go for two by trying to get the ball in the end zone from the two yard line. Teams have been successful at two-point conversions in the past about 50% of the time and 53% of the time after the first two weeks of the NFL season. So we ask students, which does it make more sense to do? Given the data, should teams go for one or two points? Which do you expect will pay off with more points over the long run?
Give students a chance to individually think through the problem, then work in small groups as they come up with their own way of thinking about the problem. Students may come up on their own with the number of points expected over time (expected value), if not, you can always push their thinking in this way or toward some other productive strategy. Finally, students consider how they could change the point value of the two-point conversion or change the line of scrimmage of either play to make the expected value of both plays nearly equal. Let us know if you have other question or extension ideas and how the lesson goes. You can reach out to us through the comments below, Facebook or Twitter.
The activity: new-xtra-point-or-two-point-conversion.pdf
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from Yummy Math http://www.yummymath.com/2015/extra-point-or-2-point-conversion/